France is closely monitoring the continent where it was squeezed by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries, before the warlord’s mutiny against Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has vowed Wagner Group’s operations in Mali and the Central African Republic “will continue” despite the failed rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the mercenaries, against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The paramilitary group has expanded its reach across Latin America, the Middle East and Africa in recent years and is seen by Western governments as Russia’s armed foreign policy apparatus. Prigozhin’s mutiny raised questions about the future of its overseas operations.
Prigozhin led an uprising against Putin’s army beginning Friday night, first seizing the major southern city of Rostov-on-Don and sending his mercenary forces on a march to Moscow before abruptly standing down his men Saturday night.
In Africa, where the group exercises influence in the Central African Republic, Mali and Burkina Faso, Wagner offers its services and help to prop up anti-Western governments in exchange for access to natural resources.
And Lavrov was bullish on the group’s future prospects in the region.
“At their request, several hundred servicemen are working in the CAR as instructors — this work, of course, will continue … Both the CAR and Mali appealed to the Wagner PMCs [Private Military Contractors] with a request to ensure the safety of their leadership,” Lavrov said in an interview with RT.
Lavrov said the recent events in Russia would not affect its relations with “partners and friends.”
Paris, which has seen Wagner utilize disinformation and cyberwarfare against French interests in the Sahel region, is watching closely.
France’s Foreign Affairs Minister Catherine Colonna said Monday that while it was “too early” to draw conclusions about the impact in Russia of Wagner’s revolt, elsewhere in Africa the situation required “all our attention” and “vigilance.”
Wagner interdependence
Fidèle Gouandjika, a minister and special adviser to CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, told AFP his country had signed “a defense deal with Russia and not Wagner … Moscow has subcontracted to Wagner, and if Russia doesn’t agree, it will send us a new contingent,” he added.
Wagner appears to have made few changes on the ground for now, according to the open-source network All Eyes on Wagner, but analysts say it’s unlikely the status quo will prevail.
Russian presence in Africa has so far involved both state and non-state actors, said Maxime Audinet, a research fellow at France’s IRSEM and a Russian politics specialist. While it’s too early to foresee the exact consequences, what happened over the weekend is bound to lead to a “fracture,” he added.
Russia and Wagner are interdependent, he added: The mercenary group relies on the Russian state for military supplies and Russia depend on Wagner to operate in areas where Moscow doesn’t want to have an official footprint.
In a deal reportedly brokered by Belarus to end the mutiny, some of Prigozhin’s merceneries will be absorbed into the regular Russian army, raising questions as to whether Wagner mercenaries in Africa will remain a separate entity or not. Replacing Wagner mercenaries overnight would be very difficult, Audinet added.
There are also financial disputes that need to be resolved. Prigozhin reportedly complained on Telegram about missing Russian money in Africa.
Source: politico.eu