A commercial plane is parked at Terminal 2 of the Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos, Nigeria, October 18, 2025. REUTERS/Sodiq Adelakun
Nigeria’s aviation sector is hurtling toward a full shutdown, with domestic carriers threatening to ground all flights by April 20 unless fuel costs — which have ballooned by roughly 270% since late February — are urgently brought under control.
The Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), which represents about a dozen mainly domestic carriers, fired off a strongly worded letter to the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) on April 14, accusing fuel marketers of deliberately driving up prices far beyond what global market conditions would justify. “Currently, airline revenues are insufficient to cover the cost of fuel alone,” the industry body warned, describing the spike as “astronomical and artificial.”
The backdrop to the crisis is a global one. Crude oil and refined fuel prices have surged worldwide following the outbreak of the Iran war, which has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints for energy trade. The ripple effects have battered airlines across the globe, forcing carriers to raise fares, scale back growth ambitions and revise financial forecasts. But AON insists Nigeria’s situation is disproportionately severe and cannot be explained by international price movements alone.
The concern is particularly acute in Africa, where jet fuel already consumes a far larger slice of airline budgets than elsewhere. According to the African Airlines Association, fuel accounts for 30% to over 40% of African carriers’ operating costs, compared to a global average of 20% to 25% — leaving airlines on the continent especially exposed when prices spike. Nigeria consumed approximately 2.1 million litres of jet fuel per day last month alone, according to the country’s petroleum products regulator.
What has deepened suspicions of market manipulation is the curious behavior of Nigeria’s sole domestic jet fuel producer, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Despite the country’s surging demand, the refinery made zero deliveries to the domestic market in March, data from the petroleum regulator revealed. Simultaneously, tanker-tracking firm Kpler recorded Nigeria’s exports of clean petroleum products — including gasoline, diesel, kerosene and jet fuel — more than doubling month-on-month during the same period, suggesting that locally produced fuel was being redirected to more lucrative foreign markets rather than easing domestic shortages. Dangote did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did MEMAN.
AON’s leadership has framed the stakes in existential terms, warning that the fallout of an aviation collapse would extend well beyond airport terminals. Hiking ticket prices steeply enough to absorb current fuel costs risks decimating passenger numbers, while an outright suspension of flights could trigger job losses, weaken the banking sector — which has significant exposure to aviation financing — and potentially worsen insecurity across a country where air travel is often the only practical option for reaching remote or conflict-affected regions.
The April 20 deadline now looms as a critical test for Nigerian aviation authorities and energy regulators, who face mounting pressure to broker an emergency resolution before the country’s skies go silent.
By: Andrews Kwesi Yeboah